Tour de France - Who will win?

The 2008 Tour de France begins in Brest, Brittany on July 5 starting with an instant move from tradition. The race now opens with a road stage rather than a prologue time trial. Another major change is the abandonment of time bonuses at the end of stages.

Some may argue that the omission of 2007 champion and 2008 Giro d'Italia winner, Alberto Contador and his Astana squad has lessened the race, but regardless of this, the race will be tough and this year, a very closely fought affair.

Cadel Evans

Damiano Cunego

Alejandro Valverde

Robbie McEwen

Erik Zabel

Riccardo Ricco

Mauricio Soler

All pics fotoreporter sirotti

Pyrenees (Stages)
With no prologue and after a few days of sprints, the hilly profile of stages six and seven give an early appetiser ahead of the first big ascents in the Pyrenees - three days of tough climbing with a day's rest in between.

The last time the Pyrenees were raced prior to the Alps was in 2006, when American Floyd Landis triumphed in Paris only to be shorn of his victory due to a positive test for testosterone on stage 17.

Alps (Stages)
Ultimately, it will be the thin air and winding, steep gradients of the Alps that decides who will win the race.

After a first day's foray into Italy towards the summit of Prato Nevoso via the unclassified climb over the Col d'Agnel, the next day's rest day is followed by a stage 16 which includes two unclassified climbs.

In difficulty terms, 'unclassified' means 'off the charts'. There's no other way to describe a seemingly never-ending hill climb playing host to a painful race of attrition. The likely race decider, at least prior to the penultimate stage time trial over 53km, will be stage 17's 210km ride from Embrun to the legendary Alpe d'Huez.

Already fatigued from their previous days of climbing, going over the Col du Galibier, then the technically difficult Col de la Croix-de-Fer, the big contenders are likely to keep their powder dry for the finale - the 13.3km climb around the 21 hairpin bends of the Alpe d'Huez.

When the course was unveiled, Evans was quick to point to its importance, saying: "I've yet to have a good stage on Alpe d'Huez! But we'll see... that's (stage 17) certainly the mammoth stage." After two top ten finishes on his first two participation's, Evans missed out on the yellow jersey by just 23secs in 2007, Contador ultimately securing victory on the penultimate stage time trial.

This year Evans will be boosted by the fact that the race time bonuses - normally awarded to the top stage finishers - have been scrapped altogether: on overall time alone, without time bonuses.

Who will win? (Yellow Jersey)
Their are three main contenders for the 2008 edition - Alejandro Valverde , Cadel Evans and Damiano Cunego. Waiting in the wings are Dennis Menchov, Riccardo Ricco, Kim Kirchen , Frank Schleck , Stjin Devolder and Carlos Sastre.

Of the top contenders, Cadel Evans proved that he could manage the 'hurt' and lost out only by a narrow margin to winner Alberto Contador in 2007. In recent races Evans has shown greater confidence by riding with flair, many previously having criticizsed him for 'negative' riding. He is our favourite to win simply because he is the more complete Tour rider and can recover from a bad day better than Valverde or Cunego.

The real cat amongst the pigeons is past Giro champion Damiano Cunego and after a few years in the 'wilderness', a new training regime has seen him win two major classic races, the Tour of Lombardie and The Amstel Gold.

In the past Cunego rode the Giro in preference to the Tour de France, and he has made the Tour his major target and at still only 25 years old he has youth on his side. If he can attack Evans on stage 17 and put a chunk of time into him, then he will win, otherwise he will be the bridesmaid.

Outside the top three we put Riccardo Ricco at fifth behind Kim Kirchen, Kirchen has the bottle and the style to wins stages and hold his own in the mountains, but will lack Cunego's and Ricco's bite. Ricco placed second in the 2008 Giro and if there is a dark horse in the race, then surely it is him.

Can we dismiss Dennis Menchov readily? We believe so, he has won the Vuelta twice and had a good few days at the 2008 Giro before he faded. He is a great rider, but something tells us that he will be in 11th spot or not finish at all.

Our top 10 on GC
1. Cadel Evans (Silence Lotto)
2. Damiano Cunego (Lampre)
3. Alejandro Valverde (Caisse d'Epargne)
4. Kim Kirchen (Team Columbia)
5. Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duvall)
6. Stijn Devolder (Quick Step)
7. Carlos Sastre (CSC/Saxo Bank)
8. Frank Schleck (CSC/Saxo Bank)
9. Mauricio Soler (Barloworld)
10. Cyril Dessel (AG2R - Our token Frenchman)

Sprint Points (Green Jersey)
The points competition lacks both favourites Tom Boonen and Daniele Bennati, leaving Thor Hushovd, Robbie McEwen, Erik Zabel, Robert Hunter and Baden Cooke to fight it out.

Mark Cavendish will win the most stages, but he will not be able to match the more experienecd Hushovd, Zabel and McEwen over and past the mountains.

1. Robbie McEwen (Silence Lotto)
2. Robert Hunter (Barloworld)
3. Erik Zabel (Milram)

Mountains (Polka Dot Jersey)
Mauricio Soler (Barloworld) has made it a target to win the King of the Mountains jersey for a second succesive year, but our money is on Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duval) to decide to miss out on the GC classification and take the polka dot.

Frank Schelck (CSC/Saxo Bank), or his brother Andy, from the mix and Frank could repeat past glory on Alpe d'Huez, but maybe caught between the GC and this competition.

1. Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duvall)
2. Mauricio Soler (Barloworld)
3. Frank Schelck (CSC/Saxo Bank)